The Philippine economy is poised to remain one of Asia’s fastest-growing despite political turmoil at home and global trade headwinds, economists said at the Logistics Conference 2025 hosted by the Mandaue Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI).
Professor Ronilo Balbieran of the University of Asia and the Pacific said growth prospects remain firm, with official forecasts putting GDP expansion at 5–6% in 2025, above the global average of 3%. That would make the Philippines the region’s second-fastest growing economy.
“With or without a good President, the Philippine economy has historically managed to grow by at least 5%,” Balbieran told delegates. “As long as rallies remain peaceful, stability holds.”
He said long-term momentum is driven more by demographics, private sector dynamism and overseas remittances than by political leadership.
Net primary income from abroad continues to push gross national income above GDP, a rare feature among emerging economies.
Infrastructure investment, amendments to the Public Service Act opening sectors to foreign ownership, and resilient consumer spending are also fueling growth.
Balbieran added that systemic reforms, including fiscal modernization and digitalization, have helped the economy withstand political shocks.
“Roughly 85% of our economy is powered by the private sector,” he said. “Government dysfunction can slow things down, but it cannot derail the overall momentum.”
While corruption scandals weigh on sentiment and US-China trade frictions pose risks, the Philippines’ relatively low dependence on exports compared with regional peers has insulated it from severe trade disruptions.
Balbieran argued that underutilized domestic liquidity remains the bigger challenge.
“The number one problem of our economy today is not scarcity of capital, but surplus cash sitting idle in banks,” he said.
He forecast stronger results in 2026 as infrastructure disbursements accelerate and inflationary pressures ease.
“The global economy is slowing, but the Philippines is moving faster,” Balbieran said. “We remain insignificant enough to be shielded from global shocks, but significant enough to be Asia’s bright spot.”
Cebu Business News
